Athens, GA - Analyzing Neighborhoods, A Real Estate Market Trend Report

 Your Athens GA real estate & housing market questions answered by Michelle DeRepentigny, local real estate expert (Illustration - question mark house)If you are a regular visitor here, you may already know that I am a real estate broker  and a real estate appraiser (see the sidebar for more information).  I spend most of my time listing and selling real estate, but I get involved in the "complex appraisals"  that come into our appraisal office, also.

Most of the Athens, GA real estate market is still stable, although activity is still slower than typical in some areas.  Lately I'm seeing a disturbing trend in the Athens, GA market area - subdivisions that could go either way as far as appreciation or declining values are concerned.  These are subdivision  have historically been very stable, but are at the crisis or "tipping point" and activity over the next month or two may change their status.  

Let's take a look at Holiday Estates Subdivision in West Athens, Georgia - MLS Area 1, near the Georgia Square Mall, today.

There are 8 currently active listings or pending/under contract sales in the subject subdivision.  Of these, 3 are REO properties (Real Estate Owned - the typical abbreviation for a property that has been foreclosed upon and is now for sale by a bank or mortgage lender) that have been foreclosed upon which are currently listed from $79,900 to $94,500.  Because of the condition and the competition from REO marketers these houses are listed below "typical" market value so that the new owners can get them out of their inventory and take their loss off the books.  When these REO sales are sold, they may have a moderate affect on the marketing and sale of current listings in the subdivision.  

Although some of these REO properties are currently under contract, there has been only 1 recent REO sale (for $89,000 on 4/24/2008) and minimal sales in the prior 90 days.  So the challenge to an appraiser doing an appraisal in this subdivision is to "forecast" or predict how these sales will affect the market and decide if this is a new trend, a slight hiccup which will level out when these REO properties are absorbed, or if things are about to get nasty with more foreclosure activity in the area.  

In the past 12 months, there have been 10 sales in the subdivision, ranging from $89,000 to $149,750, per Athens MLS.  And now there are at least 2 other houses in the subdivision which were recently foreclosed upon which will be entering the market as REO properties soon.
Illustration - "The Missing Box on the Appraisl" copyright Michelle DeRepentigny 2008, real estate broker & appraiser in Athens, GA

Currently the choices for overall property values on an appraisal are:
  • Increasing
  • Stable
  • Decreasing
So, "The Missing Box" on the appraisal should be called "unstable" because there times in this market when no one really knows what will happen next!

Holiday Estates Subdivision in Athens, GA has historically been stable, but this subdivision is curently changing  and may be at the beginning of a moderate decline. Personally, I think the Athens GA area is only going to have a "slight correction" in the housing market overall, so it may be a great time for investors or first time buyers who want to put some sweat equity into a home to take a look at Holiday Estates, but my crystal ball is a little cloudy today and I really need a box marked "Unstable"!  

Michelle DeRepentigny, Real Estate Broker & Appraiser - Athens, Georgia

P.S. Is there is a subdivision or market area that you would especially like to see the trends explored?  If so, please drop me a note in the comments and I will be happy to include it it in this new series - next week I'll be analyzing some activity in the Five Points Area of Athens, GA!

 

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